There are presently 35 reactors under construction. 34 of these new plants are additions to existing fleets in 12 countries and have been in the planning process for many years. Completion of these plants is really the end of the “first phase” of nuclear reactor construction, commissioned in a different world for less urgent needs.
The next wave of nuclear power plants will be driven by the twin imperatives of meeting aggressive energy demand in a severely carbon-constrained environment.
The challenge presented by economic growth cannot be understated. According to the OECD’s International Energy Agency, total world primary energy demand grew by 54% between 1980 and 2004, and is projected to continue to grow at the same rate (about 1.6% per year) to 2030. Electricity growth will be even stronger and is projected to double from 2004 to 2030 due primarily to population and economic growth in the developing world. If the current energy fuels mix (coal 40%, oil 10%, natural gas 15%, hydro and others 19%) is not changed, then the world’s CO2 emissions from energy production will rise by 55% in direct contravention of the International Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 recommendation that the world reduce CO2 emissions by between 50% to 80% of 2000 levels by 2050.
As governments and international agencies grapple with climate change policies it is becoming increasingly obvious that nuclear power has a vital and possibly pivotal role in achieving significant energy de-carbonisation. The International Energy Agency’s “Energy Technology Perspectives” (OECD/IEA 2008) identified a need for 32 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity each year between now and 2050 as a key component of power sector carbon abatement. This implies building up to 1,000 new nuclear power plants over the next 42 years. Similar conclusions have been reached by independent studies worldwide.
The next wave of nuclear power plants will be different.New generation nuclear plants incorporate state of the art safety systems reflecting the more than 50 years of operating experience.